The Biggest Winners of the NBA Draft Lottery were the Cleveland Cavaliers getting the #1 and #4 Draft Picks, the Minnesota Timberwolves getting the #2 pick, and the Utah Jazz, who are getting little press despite landing the #3 and #12 pick. Thanks to the New Jersey Nets, the Jazz get the # 3 pick in the 2011 NBA draft, with their #12 pick coming from their record in the 2010-2011 season. The Jazz sitting at # 3 are highly unlikely to land Point Guard Kyrie Irving of Duke or Power Forward Derrick Williams of Arizona. It's almost a forgone conclusion that the Cavs will pick Irving at #1 overall and the Timberwolves will pick Derrick Williams at #2 overall. The chances of the Cleveland Cavaliers picking Williams over Irving I'd say are at 35% given the fact that they could go Williams #1 and pick Point Guard Brandon Knight #4 getting an all star power forward and all star point guard as well. It depends how much Irving impresses them. If he really impresses them, they'll pick him first, and the Wolves will pick Derrick Williams. That is what I think will happen.
However, if teams were smart, the Cavs would pick Derrick Williams first, get their Power Forward and also a solid Point Guard at #4 in Brandon Knight. The Wolves if they were smart would draft a Point Guard regardless of what the Cavs do. The Wolves desperately need a point guard and drafting Kyrie Irving or Brandon Knight with their pick would be smart since they need somebody to replace Luke Ridnour, who really should be a back up Point Guard. The other option Minnesota could do is trade the # 2 pick for a more established veteran like Danny Granger or Andre Iguodala. One of those two decisions would be smart. The third option for Minnesota would be to gamble on Enes Kanter of Turkey. A young Center that could replace Darko Milicic and establish a deadly Minnesota front court.
Now you are probably wondering why I'm talking about Minnesota and Cleveland first. For two reasons, (A) even though I am a loyal Utah Jazz fan, I have an attachment to Minnesota since I served my 2 year LDS mission there, and I would like to see the Minnesota Timberwolves get their act together. I watched the Wolves/ Celtics game at the Target Center this past year on a trip back to visit Minnesota. The thing that struck me with as I watched the Timberwolves was that Luke Ridnour shouldn't be a starting point guard in the NBA. He should be a back up. Wolves need a point guard, and if they don't wanna go that route, then they should trade the number two pick for an all star caliber player like Granger or Iguodala. They could also draft a Center that could replace Darko Milicic, who was referred to as "Manna from Heaven" by their idiotic GM David Kahn. I wonder what that makes Kevin Love???? Anyways, that's my two cents on the Wolves. Draft a PG, or trade the pick for an all star, or draft a Center. Any of those 3 decisions would make sense. Drafting Derrick Williams wouldn't be as smart because they already have Kevin Love and Mike Beasley. Too much at that same position. However, I like Derrick Williams and I think he's going to be a great player.
The second reason I'm bringing up Cleveland and Minnesota, is their decisions will affect what Utah does in the draft. Utah has to plan for all these different scenarios in place. What if the Cavs select Derrick Williams and the Wolves go with Kanter; should the Jazz pick Kyrie Irving? What if the the Cavs get Irving and the Wolves draft a Point Guard; should the Jazz draft Derrick Williams? Should the Jazz draft a point guard? Should they draft a big man? Should the Jazz shop and trade the number 3 pick? Should they draft a small forward? Should the Jazz draft Jimmer Fredette at #12 assuming he doesn't get picked earlier? Should they draft by need or by who's the best overall player? These are questions that the Jazz need to answer and that I will help to try to sift through and answer to the best of my ability.
The first question I will answer is should the Jazz draft a Point Guard at # 3? Looking at this, the Jazz need to ask themselves if Devin Harris is going to stay with them long term. If they feel confident that he will, then they should pass on a point guard and draft a small forward/power forward type guy. However, if they don't feel like Devin Harris is going to stay, then the Jazz should draft the best point guard available in the draft (i.e. Brandon Knight). The second key question is should the Jazz draft a Center at # 3? The real question is do you roll the dice with Enes Kanter? Kanter, is a 19 year old Turkish big man who is said to be a "bigman with excellent size, strength, and polish" (courtesy of nbadraft.net). This sounds like exactly what the Utah Jazz need, and it is. So what is the hangup on Kanter? A couple of things really.
(A) Kanter has had knee injury problems. We all remember what happened with Greg Oden. I heard that Kanter claims he's healthy, but if there is any risk of Knee problems, I'd say pass. (B) The Jazz have drafted big men recently in the past. The Jazz drafted Kosta Koufous, traded for Kyrylo Fesenko, and also drafted a young kid named Ante Tomic in '08. The problem with Koufous, was they traded him. The problem with Fesenko is he doesn't know how to put the ball in the hole. The problem with Tomic, is the Jazz don't know when he'll come over from Spain to join the team. Do the Jazz want to gamble on another Center? They have plenty of big men on file with Fesenko, Okur, Tomic, Favors, Jefferson, Millsap, Evans, etc. They could use the # 3 pick to fill in other needs.
In regards to Ante Tomic, he signed a 3 and a half year deal with a pro team in Spain, and this Summer, the Jazz could buy out his contract and have him in uniform for next season. The reason this would be huge, is Tomic is developing quite nicely and to quote deseretnews.com "He is Jazz NBA property, and he's being compared to Los Angeles Lakers Star Pau Gasol". deseretnews.com also reprorted: According to a FIBA.com report this week, "Tomic has been so prolific since his arrival ... he's been likened in Spain to their national team star, 2006 FIBA World Championship MVP Pau Gasol" — but it's "not a comparison he welcomes." (here's a link to the rest of the article: http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700027149/Utah-Jazz-draftee-Ante-Tomic-making-name-for-himself-overseas.html)
If it is all indeed true that the Utah Jazz have their 23 year old replacement for Mehmet Okur waiting in the wing to come over soon, then why draft another center? If Tomic is coming over this year, or soon after, then I'd say pass on Enes Kanter. As of right now, I'd advise Utah to pass on Enes Kanter. He's got knee problems, and they already have a quality center coming over from the pros in Europe.
Now I've just dismissed the Point Guard position and the Center position for the draft, two key spots the Jazz need. If the Jazz decide to pick # 3 and don't feel the need for a point guard because Harris is committed, then draft a small forward type player. If Derrick Williams is available, I'd say draft him, but I doubt he will be. The reason they should get Derrick Williams is he seems versatile enough to me to be able to play the small forward position, and so they could really go big with Williams, Millsap, and Jefferson or Okur, or whoever they want to throw out there at Center. Williams isn't a traditional back to the basket power forward, and his versatility should be enough of a reason for Utah to draft him. But assuming that Williams is gone, that leaves Kawhi Leonard of San Diego State to be the best option for the Jazz. He's a 6 foot 7 inch monster with a lot of upside. He's a very athletic and versatile player. He can score, rebound, play defense on the perimeter, etc. He's exactly what the Jazz need, and can replace an aging Andrei Kirilenko. He seems to be a player who could be a great steal in the draft. The danger of him according to NBA Draft.net is that he's not very offensively polished and he gambles a lot on defense. But he seems to have the skills to be a great defender in the NBA and do a little bit of everything for you. The Jazz need athleticism on the perimeter and they don't need a shooting guard since they drafted Gordon Hayward. They could draft a point guard, but if Devin Harris is going to be in Utah for a while, why waste an early pick on a Point Guard? Draft Leonard out of need for an athletic small forward that has a different dynamic than CJ Miles and Gordon Hayward. He won't be fighting for a job with those guys. Leonard will be competing with Andrei Kirilenko, and we all know that the Jazz need to replace him as he is getting older, weaker, and more injury prone every year. Leonard could fit in quite nicely and fill in that void.
Now to the question that I titled my article with: To Jimmer or Not to Jimmer, that is the Question. Even though I have a distaste for BYU sports, I wish Jimmer Fredette success, good luck, and a great career in the NBA. I also have come to the conclusion that if Jimmer Fredette is available (which is likely), the Jazz should draft him at #12. For a couple of reasons. (A) the Jazz have point guard needs. Above I said they didn't only because I was talking about the # 3 pick. Picking Jimmer # 3 would be stupid as they could pick him at #12. Why pick him at # 3 if they feel like he'll be available at # 12? The Jazz need for a point guard isn't really large, but large enough that getting Jimmer at #12 would be an insurance pick in case Devin Harris bails. Also, the Jazz need somebody to score off the bench. If CJ Miles wasn't scoring for the Jazz off the bench, nobody was. Who else scores for the Jazz off the bench? Ronnie Price, Earl Watson, Fesenko, Francisco Elson, etc. None of those guys could score. Hayward could, but I'm penciling him in as our starting shooting guard in 3 years. Jimmer's offensive capabilities could be enough of a reason to pick him as a bench scorer. I see him as a Derek Fisher player worse case, and a Deron Williams type best case. Fisher was a key part of Utah's run to the Western Conference Finals in 07, and since then, Utah has seen Kyle Korver and Derek Fisher bolt.
The Jazz need somebody to fill their shoes and replace their bench production. Plus, Fredette could turn out to be better than Fish and Korver. He could be a Point Guard who dishes, scores, attacks the rim, and stretches the defense. He could be what Utah is looking for at a #12 pick. No other player that late in the draft really impresses me. It's a weak field, and Jimmer stands out for his long shooting range and ability to creat his own shot. The only knock on him is defense, something that I'm sure he can improve on. If Utah drafts a point guard at #3, I'd still say draft Jimmer at # 12 anyways because of his potential to be a Deron Williams/Chauncey Billups and also be a scoring machine off the bench even if he doesn't become a starter. The Jazz need a shooter and that is exactly what we all know Jimmer does well. In a nutshell, I say draft Jimmer because he can score, fill in at point, and the draft field is weak enough that "Gambling" on Jimmer isn't reall a gamble. If Tomic is coming over, Harris is staying long term, then draft Leonard, and grab Jimmer as a wild card. See what he can do at the next level. The only reason to not draft Jimmer in my mind is because he may not want to play in Utah. He may not want to have to deal with the pressure of playing in front of his home BYU fans at the next level. But if he says he'd like to go to the Jazz, then grab him. He will boost ticket sales as well as help Utah's offensively depleted bench.
Now what if things don't shake out exactly as I've outlined: What if Derrick Williams isn't available, Devin Harris wants out, Tomic isn't coming over for a while, and the sky is falling? Well then take Brandon Knight at # 3. That is a very safe pick for Utah. He is supposed to be a great young PG talent and that would ease the concern of Harris. Plus, we don't know if Harris is the right guy for the Jazz anyways. If Knight is good, and can replace Harris, trade Harris for another piece of a championship puzzle. I still say draft Jimmer anyways just because there isn't much left. Other names the Jazz could roll with are Kemba Walker at # 3. Maybe he's a better fit than Bradon Knight anyways.
Another crazy idea is draft Kawai Leonard at # 3 and then draft a kid named Donatas Motiejunas at #12. Motiejunas is a 7 foot Lithuanian who is like Ante Tomic. He shows great offensive ability and is able to play center. Maybe he's the answer. But like I said this is a crazy idea. If the Jazz really wanted to rock the boat, they'd draft Jimmer at #3, and then draft Donatas Motiejunas at #12. That would answer the Point Guard position, the Center problem and force Tomic to make up his mind about coming over. Maybe trade away one of the two or have a frightening front court. But they don't need two guys that are 7 foot Euros with similar games. But if Tomic ain't joining the Jazz, then maybe this Motiejunas kid is the answer.
The most ideal/realistic situation however for the Jazz is to draft Leonard in my mind at #3 , and then draft Jimmer at # 12 for all the reasons I previously mentioned. But I wouldn't sleep on Brandon Knight, Motiejunas, or Kemba Walker. Those are guys the Jazz should consider. Kanter is an option too, but the knee problems to me is a red flag. The other thing too, is they have Derrek Favors as last years # 3 pick at power forward. The Jazz do have a meaty front court with Jefferson, Millsap, Favors, Fesenko, Elson, and Jeremy Evans all at Power Forward/Center. My opinion, is Elson is gone next year, and Okur is on his last leg. Jefferson, Millsap, Favors, and Evans are all Power Forwards at their heart. The Jazz do need a true center. Ideally, Tomic comes over soon, and they answer their center problem. But if he isn't coming over soon, then taking a center would be a smart decision. Draft Kawai Leonard at # 3 and Donatas Motiejunas at #12 to fill the center void. But assuming Tomic is coming over, I say draft Leonard at # 3 and Jimmer at # 12. This being based on the assumption that Derrick Williams is taken. Drafting Jimmer is also smart because he is a point guard, and he's not really going to compete with a 6 foot 9 inch Gordon Hayward in terms of playing the same role. Jimmer is 6 foot 2. He has to play point guard in the NBA.
The last possibility the Jazz should look at is shopping the 3rd pick. Perhaps somebody really wants it. Rumors about the Wolves dealing the # 2 pick for Danny Granger should interest Utah who could offer something similar. Maybe they trade the 3rd pick for a more established pro. But the only way Utah should trade the # 3 pick, is if they get an all-star in return. Which i consider Granger to be. Unless you get a really nice piece back, I'd say draft smart and help build the Jazz into another Oklahoma City type team.
Hopefully I've shed some light on the NBA draft, what the Utah Jazz should do, and what to expect. In my honest opinion, the Jazz in my mind probably draft Brandon Knight and the Jimmer decision is a 50/50 call. On NBA draft.net Klay Thompson from Washington State is listed at #12 to Utah. He's a 6 foot 6 shooting guard. But I've heard more about Jimmer than Klay Thompson, and so I'd say draft Jimmer instead. It'll be interesting to see where Utah goes in the draft and what choices they make with their very high lottery picks.
